Even though you may not be familiar with the term “heuristics,” you rely on this problem-solving strategy nearly every day. Heuristics are cognitive rules of thumb, or mental shortcuts, which allow us to make better decisions when confronted with ambiguity or many choices. A stock trader may use heuristics to filter out opportunity sets, a hiring manager to sort through resumes, or a shopper to make decisions about what brands to buy.
For instrumentation and electrical (I&E) professionals in the oilfield , heuristics can help leaders make confident decisions about which technology to invest in. SCADA and industrial automation are capital-intensive, so having a few rules of thumb about when to spend can help decision-makers overcome “analysis paralysis” and pick the best tools for the job.
Knowing when to spend isn’t merely about a quantitative cost/benefit analysis - heuristics also take into account qualitative aspects, generalizations, and well-earned wisdom. Indeed, I spent over ten years founding and managing a multi-state, multi-industrial automation company (Plow Technologies, now part of the PakEnergy family, along with our SCADA platform, OnPing). This exposed me to every aspect of purchasing decisions for the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT), which is why I know that the slow adoption of technology is less about reluctance by energy leaders and more about pragmatism and lessons learned in the oilfield.
In today's digital oilfield, most energy professionals are involved to some degree in designing data-driven processes and making decisions about technology of all kinds. Let's look at a few examples of heuristics to aid in your oilfield equipment selection. I'll focus on the things that work just as well now as they did when I started my career without diving too deep into the various technologies. The ordering of the heuristic rules of thumb I have here is not meant to be a ranking. Instead, they are more like recipes that one should use for a given decision-making situation.
Rule of Thumb #1: Fail Fast, Move On
In industrial sectors, a lot of reliability engineering goes into making equipment and devices last as long as possible, and the oilfield is no exception. In fact, there's a way of measuring reliability so we can attempt to compare technologies and weigh cost savings against longevity. Mean Time Before Failures (MTBF) provides a statistical likelihood that equipment will operate continuously for a specified number of years, enabling operators to plan maintenance and manage spare parts at a lower operations and maintenance (O&M) cost.
0-day trials are common in the oilfield to try before you buy and scale up. But what if a device with an MTBF of 210 years fails within 90 days? The manufacturer could dismiss any concerns by arguing that there was only a 0.1% chance of the failure happening in 90 days. That is 1 in 1000!
That's where our first rule comes into play: if you try something new and it fails, it is probably garbage. An incredibly fair compromise that I like to do is assume the device only fails 1 in 100. This means I get an MTBF of 21 years instead of 210 years. The beauty of this rule of thumb is that it allows us to have some sort of baseline for further investigation. Let's take a moment to unpack this example to show why a 1% model is useful:
Of course, in the digital oilfield, we don't just buy one piece of operational technology. Devices are always part of a larger network, such as a natural gas transmission system where you might have hundreds or even thousands of flow meters. The chart below shows the increasing probability that failure will occur as device count increases. A single device may only have a 1% chance of failure within 90 days, however, 10 devices mean a 10% chance within 90 days, and 70% for 100 devices. With such a strong failure signal, this is why it's just best to move on.
Rule #2: Software is the Tiebreaker
When evaluating oilfield technology, we continually run into situations where two competing products are effectively equal in terms of their hardware specs and MTBF. However, in terms of cost, one manufacturer places a 20%, 30%, or even 50% premium on the software it bundles with the equipment. Many decision-makers in this scenario tend to turn to cost as the tiebreaker. Two solid choices for hardware mean the best choice is the lower-cost option, right? Not necessarily.
Our second rule of thumb can help in this type of head-to-head evaluation: put money into nice software over nice hardware if the software and the user experience, in particular, are better than the low-cost option. Battled tested in the oilfield, this heuristic is just like following a flow chart or decision tree. If X and Y take this branch, let's unpack why.
There is a strong correlation between the ease of use of a software interface and the overall quality of the product. A manufacturer who meticulously designs and continuously improves a device's user interface is also likely to invest in and innovate around the underlying technology platform. Rather than a clunky, frustrating experience for field techs and a static end product, you often get dynamic, continuously evolving technology that will adapt over the years as laptops and other interface devices change.
Here's a real-world example: We recently evaluated two variable frequency drives from leading manufacturers, and there was a tie when it came to the hardware specs. Drive A cost 30% more yet has a superior user interface, enabling a pumping unit to be configured on just one screen. Drive B required seven (7). However, the decision to buy was based on potential cost savings for 50 devices. Over the next year, nearly every device was replaced due to the constant series of misconfigurations and errors that led to costly downtime and rework. Good software is worth the premium.
Rule #3: Look Before You Leap
Imagine finding a barbed wire fence on a property you just bought— would you consider tearing it down? Chesterton’s Fence is a classic example of stopping to think before abandoning a strategy or changing a procedure. You might not want to demolish that fence without first understanding why it was built, which would have involved planning and considerable expense.
- Were the oil wells completed before the part was made?
- Were the people who selected equipment at their first rodeo?
If the answer to both questions is no, it’s very likely someone considered all the options at some point and made the best decision for the particular situation. By looking before you leap, you'll save time and money in the long run. This is one of those well-earned bits of wisdom I mentioned where eating humble pie is involved. We started Plow Technologies in the SCOOP/STACK and often criticized newcomers from Texas who made all sorts of incompatible technology choices in the field as they brought their own ideas about what worked well in the Midland Basin to solve the unique complexities of Oklahoma. Years later, we found ourselves on the receiving end of criticism as we expanded our operations into the Permian with very specific ideas about what should work but didn't.
There are many more examples of heuristics. Hopefully, these three rules of thumb will serve you well when making your own oilfield technology buying decisions. I love talking gear and industrial automation, so please reach out with any questions or comments. I would enjoy hearing your thoughts and strategies when it comes to making decisions about technology. I can be reached at scott.murphy@pakenergy.com. If you’d like to know more about our industry-proven OnPing platform, schedule a demo here.
Scott Murphy is Vice President of PakEnergy’s SCADA division, bringing nearly 15 years of experience in industrial automation. He began his career in the music industry before co-founding Plow Technologies, a leader in digital automation and cloud-based SCADA systems known for its powerful OnPing platform. Scott played a key role in building a strong team and customer-focused culture, helping establish Plow as a trusted industry partner and leading to its acquisition by PakEnergy in 2024. A champion of innovation, he is a frequent industry speaker and serves on the Francis Tuttle Automation Advisory Board.
